M&A Update | Food & Beverage
Q1-2018
FOOD & BEVERAGE
M&A UPDATE
PUBLICATION CONTENT PROVIDED BY BAKER TILLY CAPITAL
Major U.S. indexes The first quarter of 2018 (Q1-2018) showed negative performance for the broader U.S. equity market, as the S&P, DJIA and NASDAQ closed down 3.4 percent, 3.9 percent and 0.8 percent, respectively, for the quarter. In the LTM period ending March 29, the S&P, DJIA and NASDAQ closed up 11.5 percent, 15.4 percent and 17.6 percent, respectively. Food and beverage relative performance As of March 29, 2018, four of the five food and beverage segments exhibited decreases in market performance on a trailing 12-month basis. These decreases were largely attributable to uncertainty in public equity markets and legislative actions related to the revision of the U.S. tax code. The beverage segment performed the best of the five food and beverage segments. This segment exhibited stock gains of 3.3 percent, lagging the strong performance of the S&P 500 index’s 11.5 percent increase during the observed period.
Table 1: Food and beverage relative market performance
-20.00% -15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00%
11.5%
-3.2% -7.1% 3.3% -0.4%
-12.6%
Mar-30-2017
Jun-30-2017
Sep-30-2017
Dec-31-2017
S&P 500 (^SPX)
Branded Packaged Goods
Natural / Organic
Beverage
Snack
Agribusiness
Table 2: Indexed market performance by sector
% Change
Median EV/ LTM
Industry Sector
3 Months 12 Months Revenue EBITDA
Branded Packaged Goods
(8.5%) (13.9%) (3.0%) (6.4%)
(12.6%) (7.1%)
2.5x 0.9x 3.8x 2.7x 1.3x
11.7x 14.2x 16.0x 14.4x 11.2x
Natural / Organic
Beverage
3.3%
Source: S&P Capital IQ and Baker Tilly Capital research (April 2018) LTM as of March 29, 2018 EV = Enterprise value
Snack
(3.2%) (0.4%)
Agribusiness
0.1%
1
Table 3: Food and beverage guideline companies
Closing Price % of 52 Enterprise
LTM
LTM Margins
EV/ LTM
Company Name (Ticker)
3/31/2018 Week High Value Revenue Gross Profit EBITDA Gross Profit EBITDA Revenue EBITDA
Branded Packaged Goods
General Mills, Inc. (NYSE:GIS)
$45.1 74.2% $36,574 $124.0 92.5% $18,844 $43.3 73.2% $16,727 $65.0 87.5% $30,882 $106.4 95.5% $18,932 $36.9 91.6% $18,306 $8.6 43.1% $1,684 $34.3 90.3% $18,672 $23.7 55.0% $3,589 $75.8 85.2% $11,013 $62.3 66.4% $106,044 $56.9 77.7% $25,570 $45.1 85.2% $18,672 $9.2 67.9% $1,476 $32.1 70.3% $3,961 $42.9 81.5% $2,582 $54.1 81.2% $9,153 $29.1 73.4% $3,477 $32.1 70.3% $2,582 $19.0 83.3% $5,416 $118.4 93.5% $25,704 $43.4 89.3% $214,191 $54.4 95.8% $29,540 $89.0 68.6% $3,989 $189.1 79.8% $2,111 $227.9 96.3% $54,532 $109.2 89.1% $174,639 $57.9 89.2% $82,525 Beverage $7.2 66.3% $214
$15,657 $7,360 $7,858 $13,076 $5,028 $7,834 $7,795 $9,219 $1,687 $5,740 $26,232 $9,771 $7,834 $1,280 $2,915 $9,696 $3,157 $3,572 $2,915 $812
$5,356 $3,199 $2,797 $1,632 $2,956 $1,954 $5,297 $3,143 $2,138 $961 $2,328 $1,394 $1,818 $326 $1,953 $1,321 $447 $315 $1,758 $1,070 $10,027 $8,315 $3,352 $2,148 $2,328 $1,394 $569 $277 $1,474 $328 $909 $660 $663 $274 $569 $277 $1,132 $276 $4,005 $1,545 $21,437 $10,908 $2,170 $1,180 $378 $212 $470 $175 $3,855 $2,779 $34,888 $12,669 $7,049 $5,064 $35,058 $21,474 $10,046 $5,118 $3,855 $1,545 $217 $42 $65 $17 $146 $63
34.2% 20.4% 2.2x 38.0% 22.2% 2.4x 37.6% 24.9% 2.0x 40.5% 24.0% 2.2x 42.5% 19.1% 3.6x 29.7% 17.8% 2.3x 23.3% 4.2% 0.2x 21.2% 14.3% 2.1x 26.5% 18.6% 2.1x 30.6% 18.6% 2.2x 38.2% 31.7% 3.7x 32.9% 19.6% 2.3x 34.2% 19.1% 2.2x 11.4% 4.9% 0.9x 19.5% 9.5% 1.2x 15.2% 3.4% 0.3x 26.8% 5.2% 0.3x 28.8% 20.9% 3.1x 20.3% 8.8% 1.2x 19.5% 5.2% 0.9x 49.4% 12.0% 1.4x 59.1% 22.8% 3.8x 63.2% 32.2% 6.1x 67.6% 36.8% 9.2x 40.0% 22.5% 4.1x 52.7% 19.6% 2.9x 50.8% 36.6% 7.0x 54.5% 19.8% 2.5x 30.0% 21.6% 3.5x 31.5% 8.1% 1.9x 62.1% 38.0% 5.3x 51.0% 24.5% 4.4x 52.7% 22.5% 3.8x 46.3% 24.8% 3.0x 39.6% 18.8% 2.8x 54.5% 19.8% 2.5x 30.0% 14.3% 2.0x 15.9% 7.9% 0.8x 37.2% 17.1% 2.2x 39.6% 18.8% 2.5x 11.4% 16.4% 1.8x 21.5% 12.0% 1.2x 3.8% 2.2% 0.4x 8.6% 3.5% 0.4x 5.7% 4.0% 0.5x 55.1% 28.5% 4.2x 12.7% 29.4% 3.9x 17.0% 13.7% 1.8x 11.4% 12.0% 1.2x
10.4x 10.7x
The J. M. Smucker Company (NYSE:SJM) Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB)
8.1x 9.1x
Kellogg Company (NYSE:K)
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (NYSE:MKC) Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) Dean Foods Company (NYSE:DF) Hormel Foods Corporation (NYSE:HRL) B&G Foods, Inc. (NYSE:BGS) Post Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:POST) The Kraft Heinz Company (NasdaqGS:KHC)
18.3x 11.9x 14.0x 11.1x 11.6x 11.7x 11.1x 11.1x 5.0x
Average Median
Natural / Organic
SunOpta Inc. (TSX:SOY)
18.2x 12.6x
The Hain Celestial Group, Inc. (NasdaqGS:HAIN) United Natural Foods, Inc. (NasdaqGS:UNFI) Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE:NGVC)
8.1x 4.8x
Pinnacle Foods Inc. (NYSE:PF)
15.0x 11.8x 12.6x
Average Median
Cott Corporation (TSX:BCB)
$2,294 $6,774 $33,918 $3,210
11.5x 16.9x 17.3x 25.1x 18.3x 14.9x 16.3x 12.8x 15.1x 23.6x 13.7x 16.9x 16.3x 12.1x 13.6x 12.8x 13.9x 10.5x 12.6x 12.8x
Dr Pepper Snapple Group, Inc. (NYSE:DPS) The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE:BF.B) National Beverage Corp. (NasdaqGS:FIZZ) The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (NYSE:SAM) Constellation Brands, Inc. (NYSE:STZ) Starbucks Corporation (NasdaqGS:SBUX) Craft Brew Alliance, Inc. (NasdaqGS:BREW) Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (ENXTBR:ABI) PepsiCo, Inc. (NasdaqGS:PEP)
$943 $892
$7,585 $64,038 $23,465
$18.6 91.2%
$392
$207
$89.3 81.1% $267,059
$56,444
Average Median
$92.4 87.0% $78,191 $18,161
$89.0 89.2% $29,540
$6,774
Snack
The Hershey Company (NYSE:HSY)
$99.0 85.0% $23,386 $41.7 88.4% $79,527 $109.2 89.1% $174,639 $136.6 86.8% $2,421
$7,608 $26,247 $64,038 $1,143
$3,521 $1,888 $10,396 $4,945 $34,888 $12,669 $343 $164
Mondelez International, Inc. (NasdaqGS:MDLZ)
PepsiCo, Inc. (NasdaqGS:PEP)
J&J Snack Foods Corp. (NasdaqGS:JJSF) John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (NasdaqGS:JBSS)
$57.9 82.3%
$724
$879
$140
$70
Average Median
$88.9 86.3% $56,140 $19,983
$9,857 $3,947 $3,521 $1,888
$99.0 86.8% $23,386
$7,608
Agribusiness
The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) Darling Ingredients Inc. (NYSE:DAR)
$24.3 83.2% $12,454 $17.3 88.7% $4,538 $73.9 88.3% $15,314 $33.1 87.0% $1,429 $43.4 93.8% $30,989 $116.7 92.0% $56,518 $37.7 83.8% $15,764
$7,409 $3,662 $45,314 $3,686 $61,366 $14,593 $4,050
$843 $1,217 $786 $439 $1,720 $997 $319 $129 $3,523 $2,467 $8,039 $4,154 $513 $1,190 $2,249 $1,513 $843 $1,190
10.9x
9.4x
Bunge Limited (NYSE:BG)
17.5x
The Andersons, Inc. (NasdaqGS:ANDE) Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (NYSE:ADM)
9.6x
11.3x 14.7x 13.1x 12.4x 11.3x
Monsanto Company (NYSE:MON) CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:CF)
Average Median
$49.5 88.1% $19,572 $20,012
$37.7 88.3% $15,314
$7,409
Source: S&P Capital IQ and Baker Tilly Capital research (April 2018)
2
Table 4: Historical median trading multiples
Branded Packaged Goods
Average 16.4x
Average 2.4x
Average 13.2x
EV/EBIT
EV/Revenue
EV/EBITDA
25.0x
0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x
10.0x 12.0x 14.0x 16.0x 18.0x
20.0x
15.0x
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x
10.0x
5.0x
0.0x
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
Natural / Organic
Average 1.1x
Average 14.7x
EV/Revenue
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Average 19.7x
0.0x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 1.2x 1.4x
10.0x 12.0x 14.0x 16.0x 18.0x
10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x
0.0x 5.0x
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
Beverage
Average 3.5x
Average 16.2x
EV/Revenue
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
Average 20.1x
0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x 4.0x
20.0x
16.0x 17.0x 18.0x 19.0x 20.0x 21.0x 22.0x 23.0x
15.0x
10.0x
5.0x
0.0x
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
Snack EV/EBITDA
Average 2.7x
EV/EBIT
EV/Revenue
Average 14.3x
Average 17.5x
15.5x 16.0x 16.5x 17.0x 17.5x 18.0x 18.5x 19.0x
0.0x 0.5x 1.0x 1.5x 2.0x 2.5x 3.0x 3.5x
12.5x 13.0x 13.5x 14.0x 14.5x 15.0x 15.5x
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
Agribusiness
Average 1.2x
Average 10.7x
Average 24.4x
EV/Revenue
EV/EBITDA
EV/EBIT
0.0x 0.2x 0.4x 0.6x 0.8x 1.0x 1.2x 1.4x 1.6x
10.0x 12.0x 14.0x
10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x 30.0x 35.0x
0.0x 2.0x 4.0x 6.0x 8.0x
0.0x 5.0x
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
2014
2015
2016
2017
LTM
Source: S&P Capital IQ and Baker Tilly Capital research (April 2018)
3
M&A activity There were 62 reported M&A transactions that closed during Q1-2018, up from the 52 transactions during the fourth quarter of 2017 (Q4-2017). Reported transactions in Q1-2018 increased 6.9 percent compared to 58 deals for the same period in 2017. The aggregate deal value of the M&A transactions with reported values was $12.8 billion during Q1-2018. This is an increase from the total deal value of $5.1 billion in Q4-2017. Additionally, we would note that quarters with peak values were driven by large individual transactions that took place during each respective period.
Table 5: Quarterly U.S. food and beverage M&A activity for transactions closed Aggregate transaction value and number of deals
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
$70,000
57,716
$60,000
$50,000
37,214
$40,000
$30,000
25,569
23,006
21,503
17,541
$20,000
13,986
12,804
12,631
Number of Deals
6,986
$10,000
5,149
4,428
4,067
3,324
3,073 989
$0 Aggregate Transaction Value ($MM) 3.2 Median 2.0x Q2-2014 Q3-2014 Q4-2014
Q1-2015
Q2-2015
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
Q1-2016
Q2-2016
Q3-2016
Q4-2016
Q1-2017
Q2-2017
Q3-2017
Q4-2017
Q1-2018
As detailed in Tables 6 and 7, the Q4-2017 transactions with reported deal multiples 1 had a higher median revenue multiple than the historic median; also, transactions with reported EBITDA multiples had a higher median multiple than the historic median.
Table 6: Quarterly M&A TEV/revenue multiples 1
Table 7: Quarterly M&A TEV/EBITDA multiples 1
Median 15.1x
23.7
22.6
3.1
2.9
20.1
2.7
2.6
17.7 17.9
2.2
15.7
2.1 1.9
2.0 2.1 1.9
14.3 15.2
1.9
11.8 12.2
1.5
1.5 1.4
10.0
9.2
8.8
8.1
1.0
0.0
0.0
Q2-2014
Q3-2014
Q4-2014
Q1-2015
Q2-2015
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
Q1-2016
Q2-2016
Q3-2016
Q4-2016
Q1-2017
Q2-2017
Q3-2017
Q4-2017
Q1-2018
Q2-2014
Q3-2014
Q4-2014
Q1-2015
Q2-2015
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
Q1-2016
Q2-2016
Q3-2016
Q4-2016
Q1-2017
Q2-2017
Q3-2017
Q4-2017
Q1-2018
Source: S&P Capital IQ and Baker Tilly Capital research (April 2018) 1 Six revenue multiples and four EBITDA multiples reported
4
Table 8: Quarterly M&A transactions by segment
Table 9: Quarterly M&A transactions by buyer type
6.5%
15%
3.2%
11.3%
Beverage Branded Packaged Goods Agribusiness Natural / Organic Snack Private Label
32.3%
Strategic Buyer
Financial Buyer
12.9%
85%
33.9%
The branded packaged goods segment led the food and beverage industry’s M&A activity by volume, accounting for 33.9 percent of the total deals closed in Q1-2018. The beverage segment accounted for the second largest percentage of total deals for the period with 32.3 percent. The agribusiness segment followed, accounting for 12.9 percent. The snack, private label and natural/organic segments comprised the remainder of the total for the period, representing 11.3 percent, 6.5 percent and 3.2 percent, respectively. Strategic buyers were most active by volume in Q1-2018 for the food and beverage industry, representing 85 percent of all closed transactions, with financial buyers representing the remaining 15 percent. It should be noted that many of the transactions involving financial buyers consisted of financial buyers making strategic purchases through existing platform companies. U.S. middle-market food and beverage M&A activity There were eight reported middle-market 2 transactions that closed during Q1-2018, up from the seven closed middle- market transactions in Q4-2017. Reported middle-market transactions in Q1-2018 remained steady with the eight closed middle-market deals for the same period in 2017. The aggregate deal value of the middle-market M&A transactions with reported values was $610 million during Q1-2018. This is a decrease from the total deal value of $703 million in Q4-2017.
5
Table 10: Middle-market food and beverage M&A activity for transactions closed Aggregate transaction value and number of deals
$1,200
10 12 14 16
$1,000
1,025
886
$800
862
793
785
703
$600
0 2 4 6 8
625
610
475
$400
455
363
335
334 333 307 285
$200
Number of Deals
$0
Aggregate Transaction Value ($MM)
Q2-2014
Q3-2014
Q4-2014
Q1-2015
Q2-2015
Q3-2015
Q4-2015
Q1-2016
Q2-2016
Q3-2016
Q4-2016
Q1-2017
Q2-2017
Q3-2017
Q4-2017
Q1-2018
Source: S&P Capital IQ and Baker Tilly Capital research (April 2018) 2 Middle-market is defined as transaction values between $10 million and $200 million
6
Table 11: Select food and beverage transactions closed in Q1-2018
EV
EV ($MM)
Announce Date
Target
Target Business Description
Buyers/Investors
Revenue EBITDA
12/18/2017 Snyder's-Lance
Manufactures and distributes snack food products.
Campbell Soup Company
6,113.6 2.7x 21.7x
01/16/2018 U.S. Confectionary Business of Nestlé
Confectionary business of Nestle S.A.
Ferrero International
2,800.0
-
-
09/19/2017 Bob Evans Farms
Produces and distributes refrigerated and frozen food items.
Post Holdings, Inc.
1,741.3 4.2x 26.9x
12/18/2017 Amplify Snack Brands
Develops, markets, and distributes better-for-you snack products.
The Hershey Company
1,527.3 4.1x 18.5x
01/17/2018 JBS Five Rivers Cattle Feeding Provides cattle feeding services.
Ospraie Management, LLC; Pinnacle Asset Management, L.P.
200.0
-
-
11/30/2017 Field Roast Grain Meat Co.
Produces and markets vegan meat products.
Maple Leaf Foods Inc.
120.0 3.2x
-
11/07/2017 FMC Corporation, European Herbicide Portfolio
Provides solutions, applications, and products for the agricultural, consumer, and industrial markets. Owns and operates corn flour manufacturing plant and engages in the production and sale of corn flour.
Nufarm Limited
90.0
-
-
01/30/2018 Minsa Corporation
Bunge North America
75.0
-
-
Source: S&P Capital IQ and Baker Tilly Capital research (April 2018)
7
All information and analysis in this report is provided by Baker Tilly Capital, LLC, which provides investment banking services before, during, and after a sell-side or buy-side transaction. Baker Tilly Capital, member FINRA and SIPC, is a wholly- owned subsidiary of Baker Tilly Virchow Krause, LLP. RubinBrown and Baker Tilly Virchow Krause are independent members of Baker Tilly International, the world’s ninth largest network of accountancy and business advisory firms.
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