Fall 2016 issue of Horizons

When considering these results, which generally appear positive, it’s important to consider a few additional facts. First, the increases in employed citizens previously noted are primarily attributable due to an increase in the labor force in each of the states mentioned. As a result, those increases don’t necessarily indicate that new jobs are being created, which is a better indication of fiscal health. Second, as part of its calculation, the unemployment rate does not take into consideration people of working age who have stopped actively looking for work. Because of this, it can be difficult to gauge an area’s true unemployment rate if it excludes large numbers of working-age individuals that have opted not to seek employment. The results are relatively similar at the municipality level, as the majority of the jobs activity in Missouri, Kansas, Colorado and Tennessee were driven by changes in employment within the largest metropolitan areas of those states. St. Louis, Denver and Nashville all enjoyed increases of 30,000 – 40,000 employed citizens to this point in 2016, while Kansas City has experienced a more modest increase of approximately 5,000 employed citizens. Of the cities listed, only Denver experienced an increase in its unemployment rate (of 0.3%) in 2016. Considering the significant inflow of people into the state and the area in particular (as the U.S. Census Bureau named Colorado the 3rd-fastest growing state, by population, and Denver the 9th- fastest growing city in the country), new jobs will have to be created to balance out the increasing population. St. Louis, Kansas City and Nashville all saw unemployment rates decline from the beginning of 2016, with St. Louis’ decreasing by a full percentage point.

One area of renewed importance at the local level is the focus on public transit.

The main reason that state and local governments focus so intently on population and labor metrics is because more citizens within a government’s boundaries mean more tax revenues to be earned by the governmental entity. Those expected tax revenues (from all sources) play a central role in determining the government’s budget for the year. Considering that all governments are facing pressure to cut expenditures from the budget where possible (as increases to certain governmental programs, particularly those related to healthcare, are often legally mandated), increasing the government’s revenue base is often the only way to maintain levels of spending from year to year. budgets for Missouri, Kansas, Colorado and Tennessee, a few consistent themes emerge among the states. First, legislatures and governors are taking a conservative approach to budgeting expenditures for the new fiscal year. Missouri and Tennessee (at approximately 4.5% each) had moderate projected overall increases in spending from FY16, while Kansas and Colorado are projecting increases of less than 1.0% in the upcoming year. Budgets When looking at the most recent

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